Zelensky is making a big mistake by catering to Trump. I know he doesn’t have much choice, but I totally see Trump prepping to help with a Ukraine-government takeover by a Russian asset before long.
I’d bet that Ukraine is banking on Russia not agreeing to the ceasefire. This way they can utilize the US support a little longer while also shopping for alternatives. The US will not be a reliable partner in any case, but it might still be enough to hold on for now.
Even then do you trust trump to actually give aid or intelligence? I’m sure he’ll say yeah I’ll give it to you, but he’ll never deliver. Still it’s about the only play Ukraine. No real downside if Trump agrees and ends up following through.
It depends on how insulated Putin is from reality.
If he’s still surrounds himself with yes-men, he might send their proposal where sun doesn’t shine. But if the quantity of yes-men has dropped since he started the war, then maybe. He might know that their economy is falling apart.
I’m almost sure that the Kremlin still polls Russian people for their opinions via VTSIOM, or at least bothers to read Levada when they publish their polls. Polls say that the public would accept simply stopping the war. What the public would not accept is giving up conquered territories. :(
So any real negotiations where Ukraine will demand its occupied land back, will be harder.
Polls in Ukraine show that Zelensky has a massive approval rating. Right behind him (or sometimes ahead, depending on how you ask) - not a politician, but the first wartime commander of the armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny.
It would take mind-bendingly much engineering to change the direction of Ukraine currently.
Maybe. Russia currently has the upper hand sadly, but if Zelenskyy trades 30 day pause (appearance of victory for Trump and a short reprieve for UKR) for resuming intel sharing and some US aid that may be a net win for UKR. Really depends on what comes along with the deal - what has UKR agreed to give up to get this ceasefire?
This 100%. Trump & his apparatus has been floating in exchange for a deal that Zelensky must resign & hold elections. Musk is already prepping his botfarm to get Ukraine to vote for the Russian asset.
Zelensky is making a big mistake by catering to Trump. I know he doesn’t have much choice, but I totally see Trump prepping to help with a Ukraine-government takeover by a Russian asset before long.
I’d bet that Ukraine is banking on Russia not agreeing to the ceasefire. This way they can utilize the US support a little longer while also shopping for alternatives. The US will not be a reliable partner in any case, but it might still be enough to hold on for now.
Even then do you trust trump to actually give aid or intelligence? I’m sure he’ll say yeah I’ll give it to you, but he’ll never deliver. Still it’s about the only play Ukraine. No real downside if Trump agrees and ends up following through.
This would be a real possibility.
It depends on how insulated Putin is from reality.
If he’s still surrounds himself with yes-men, he might send their proposal where sun doesn’t shine. But if the quantity of yes-men has dropped since he started the war, then maybe. He might know that their economy is falling apart.
I’m almost sure that the Kremlin still polls Russian people for their opinions via VTSIOM, or at least bothers to read Levada when they publish their polls. Polls say that the public would accept simply stopping the war. What the public would not accept is giving up conquered territories. :(
So any real negotiations where Ukraine will demand its occupied land back, will be harder.
Polls in Ukraine show that Zelensky has a massive approval rating. Right behind him (or sometimes ahead, depending on how you ask) - not a politician, but the first wartime commander of the armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny.
It would take mind-bendingly much engineering to change the direction of Ukraine currently.
Maybe. Russia currently has the upper hand sadly, but if Zelenskyy trades 30 day pause (appearance of victory for Trump and a short reprieve for UKR) for resuming intel sharing and some US aid that may be a net win for UKR. Really depends on what comes along with the deal - what has UKR agreed to give up to get this ceasefire?
From my crystal ball I can see Putin deliberately braking the cease fire and getting Agent Orange to blame Zelenskyy.
This 100%. Trump & his apparatus has been floating in exchange for a deal that Zelensky must resign & hold elections. Musk is already prepping his botfarm to get Ukraine to vote for the Russian asset.